GOING THE DISTANCE

The biggest question a handicapper has to answer before placing his Belmont Stakes bets is 'Can the horse handle the distance?'. Few, if any, three year olds make it to Belmont having run a mile and a half so successfully determining which horses have the requisite stamina can make all the difference in Belmont Stakes betting. Some handicappers suggest that stamina has to be bred into horses and thus a horse's pedigree can help uncover a genetic predisposition toward endurance. If a horse's sire did well at long distance there's a decent chance he'll have that trait as well. Other than that, there's the 'eye test'--watch how a horse looks at the end of his previous races like the Kentucky Derby and Preakness (both right around 1 1/4 mile). If he looks exhausted and ready to collapse it's a bad sign but some horses run out well after the finish and look like they could go some more.

THE PACE IS SLOWER

The distance is definitely the most important factor in handicapping the Belmont but the longer distance and smaller field does offer one significant upside in the form of a slower, more manageable pace. You'll seldom see a speed horse try to set an insane pace out the gate because at a mile and a half its pretty much a one way ticket to a last place finish. Pure speed horses often skip the Belmont since it's just a tough race for them to navigate. Without breakneck speed in the race it becomes a very tactical competition meaning that the handicapper needs to be mindful of the jockeys involved. A good jockey can set the proper course for a horse's skill set or make in-race adjustments if things don't go well from the start. In a shorter race, he might not have that opportunity. In particular, jockeys that have extensive experience riding a specific race horse are worthy of your attention.

PAY ATTENTION TO FATIGUE

There has been a trend away from horses running in all three legs of the Triple Crown unless they're in contention to win it. Most horsemen don't see a reason to subject a three year old to the brutal schedule of the races in most circumstances for the good of the horse and owing to the fact that there are plenty of lucrative paydays later in the three year old campaign they can target. The most common scenario in recent years is for a horse to run in the Kentucky Derby, skip the Preakness, and run in the Belmont though other combinations also occur. With the new Derby qualification system fewer horses will have experience racing with such a short layoff going forward meaning there will be fewer horses attempting all three Triple Crown races. For this reason, it's worth giving special consideration to 'rested' horses. Also pay attention to horses that race in the Belmont without entering either of the previous Triple Crown races-they could be 'local' horses that are comfortable on the Belmont track or promising three year olds that have started to blossom later in the season.